Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
